Washington wants you to believe it finally found the key to unlocking peace in North Africa.
On June 29, 2026, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio sat down in Washington with Saddam Haftar, the deputy commander of the eastern-based Libyan National Army. State Department spokesman Tommy Pigott spun the meeting as a classic diplomatic triumph, claiming both sides discussed "possible avenues for cooperation to advance unity and peace."
But let's be real. Look past the boilerplate press releases, and you'll find a highly controversial, high-stakes gamble orchestrated by Africa envoy Massad Boulos. The plan aims to build a fragile power-sharing bridge across Libya's deep institutional divides. It sounds great on paper, but critics warn it might just entrench the country’s corrupt ruling elites.
The Boulos Formula Under the Microscope
The US initiative tries to fuse Libya's competing parallel governments. Right now, the country is split. Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh leads the UN-recognized Government of National Unity (GNU) in western Tripoli. Meanwhile, Osama Hammad's administration governs the east and south from Benghazi, backed heavily by the Haftar family machine.
Instead of waiting for UN-led national elections that have been frozen for years, Washington wants a shortcut. The proposed short-term US framework leaves Dbeibeh in his prime ministerial seat while elevating Saddam Haftar—the son and heir apparent of eastern strongman Khalifa Haftar—to a powerful national executive presidential council.
It's a classic elite bargain. You keep your sandbox, I keep mine, and we share the vault.
Why This Washington Power Play is Dangerous
I’ve watched Western administrations try to patch up Libya with temporary fixes since Muammar Qaddafi fell in 2011. They usually fail because they ignore the ground reality.
Here is what most analysts are getting wrong about the current push. It treats Libya like a corporate merger rather than a volatile web of armed factions. Just last week, Deputy Defense Minister Abdulsalam al-Zubi—Dbeibeh’s military counterpart in Tripoli—was also in Washington talking to US officials. Forces from these rival camps even conducted a joint military training session under US supervision back in April.
But don't mistake forced handshakes for actual military integration. The factions don't trust each other. By picking winners and cementing the rule of the Dbeibeh and Haftar families, the US risks freezing out genuine democratic reformers. It legitimizes commanders who use state resources to fund private fiefdoms.
Critics aren't holding back either. Many warn that treating Saddam Haftar as the default statesman of the east rewards dynastic military rule. It signals to other armed groups that the only way to get a seat at the Washington table is to seize enough territory and oil wells to become a nuisance.
What is Really at Stake
Why is the Trump administration suddenly sprinting to get a deal signed in Washington? Follow the money.
Libya holds Africa's largest proven oil reserves. Political fragmentation keeps production volatile. If this power-sharing deal sticks, Libyan oil production could realistically double to three million barrels per day by the end of the decade. A stable, unified government unlocks massive American energy investments and injects fresh crude into global markets. That is the real prize for Washington.
Intelligence chiefs from Italy, Egypt, and Turkey have all shuttled through Libya over the past month to review this framework. Everyone wants a piece of a stabilized Libyan economy.
But a deal built purely on oil logistics and elite preservation won't survive a single local skirmish. While Boulos insists this initiative complements the long-term road map of the UN Support Mission in Libya, local political bodies just agreed on a separate timeline to hold national elections within eight months. The two tracks are on a direct collision course.
The Next Moves to Watch
If you want to know whether this plan has legs or if it is just another dead-on-arrival policy, watch these indicators over the next few weeks.
- The Washington Signing Ceremony: Boulos hinted that Donald Trump might host a formal signing ceremony. If that happens, it means the financial terms between Tripoli and Benghazi have been locked in.
- Local Militia Backlash: Watch the armed groups in Misrata and western Tripoli. If they feel Dbeibeh sold them out to share power with a Haftar, expect immediate blockades or street fighting.
- The Central Bank Control: Watch how the oil revenues are distributed. If a unified financial mechanism isn't established immediately, the political agreement will collapse within days.
Washington is playing a game of geopolitical poker in Libya, using a shaky power-sharing deck. They want stability and oil, but by bypassing the Libyan public to cut a deal with armed elites, they might just be setting the stage for the next civil explosion.
