You wake up, look out the window, and see a wall of gray water. If you live in Hong Kong, you already know what that means. Your phone buzzes with a notification from the Hong Kong Observatory, and suddenly your Thursday schedule is completely out the window.
The city just endured another relentless drenching. On Thursday morning, the Observatory dropped an amber rainstorm warning, only to cancel it at 9:25 AM after more than 30mm of rain bucketed down in less than an hour. Over in Sai Kung East, skies turned downright menacing as hourly rainfall looked set to cross the 70mm mark.
It feels like the sky has been leaking for weeks, leaving everyone asking the exact same question: Is the long Tuen Ng Festival weekend going to be an absolute washout?
The short answer is no, but you're going to have to sweat for it.
The Tug of War Over Guangdong Skies
Right now, a massive trough of low pressure and an active southwest monsoon are parked right over the coast of southern China. They're pumping intense, thundery showers directly into the city. It's why we're seeing these sudden, violent downpours that trigger flash flood alerts before you even have time to grab an umbrella.
But there's a shift happening behind the scenes.
A subtropical ridge over the western North Pacific is finally pushing its way westward. Think of it as a massive atmospheric shield. As this ridge moves in, it will push those heavy rain bands away from the coast, giving our saturated hillsides a much-needed break.
What to Expect for the Dragon Boat Festival
If you're planning to watch the dragon boat races or head out for a long-awaited three-day weekend, here's how the weather breaks down.
- Friday (Tuen Ng Festival): The relentless downpours will finally start to back off. You can expect a few lingering morning showers and some strong, gusty winds. By the afternoon, sunny intervals will break through the clouds.
- The Weekend: Pack your sunscreen and ditch the rain gear. The weather is going to turn very hot. As the subtropical ridge takes full control, temperatures will soar over the weekend and stay high well into next week.
Don't Let the Cleared Warnings Fool You
It's easy to think that once the Observatory drops the amber or red signals, the danger has passed. That's a mistake that local emergency crews see people make every single year.
Even when the rain stops, the ground remains completely saturated. Landslips don't always happen when the rain is pouring; they frequently occur hours after the skies clear because the waterlogged soil loses its stability. Rivers can still surge unexpectedly due to runoff traveling down from the peaks.
Observatory Safety Briefing: "Though the rainstorm warning has been cancelled, people should stay alert to the danger that may be brought about by river flooding."
Another band of thundery showers over western Guangdong is still lurking close by. Keep your weather app open, avoid hiking near catchments or steep slopes today, and get ready for a sudden shift from torrential rain to intense summer heat by tomorrow afternoon.
Your Next Steps for the Long Weekend
- Check the watercourses: If your holiday plans involve outdoor trails in Sai Kung or the New Territories, alter your route to avoid streams and low-lying valleys. Runoff will remain high through Friday morning.
- Hydrate for Saturday: The transition from a damp monsoon to a subtropical ridge means humidity will drop slightly, but temperatures will spike drastically. Prepare for sudden heat exhaustion if you're outdoors.
- Monitor race schedules: Local Dragon Boat committees will finalize race times based on Friday morning's wind gusts. Check morning updates before heading to the waterfront.
